Yesterday COSELLOUT reported, despite losing to the San Antonio Spurs, why the Knicks played their best game of the year. The biggest factor?: The NBA’s one game suspension on Zach Randolph forcing Isiah Thomas to eliminate the Zach-Eddy combo for one game. The hope from that Spurs game was predictably fleeting as the next night Zach and Eddy were starting right alongside each other. By the time the 1st quarter ended, the Knicks were down by 14 points.  The Knicks ended up losing the game by 12. Not one Knick fan was surprised. These significant 1st quarter deficits with Eddy and Zach starting have been the story of the season (okay, one of the stories!).

COSELLOUT has beaten this drum many times before and will continue to search for new and creative  ways to convey the following information to Isiah: Eddy and Zach should not share the same court at the same time!  And until Isiah makes a permanent change or gets fired himself, we will keep on beating. We all wanted it to work, but you’ve got to know when to fold ‘em. Especially when you take a good look at the cards. Consider the following information about the games when Zach and Eddy have start alongside each other (25 of 32 games):
·        The Knicks have ended the first quarter down by 5 or more points 15 times (60%)!
 
·        There has not been ONE SINGLE GAME where the Knicks LED by 5 or more points after the first quarter when Eddy-Zach started. Not one. NOT one. Not ONE! In 25 combined starts! (However, it did happen twice WITHOUT the Eddy-Zach combo)
 
·        6 of the Knicks 8 wins came by way of 2nd and 4th quarter spurts often keyed by bench players in comeback efforts.

Before we get all super statistical about this, we should note that analyzing 1st quarters is no exact science which doesn’t take into account chemistry with other players, substitutions, Stephon Marbury’s prolonged absence, ot times during quarters when Zach and Curry are not on the floor. Having stated that, the results are overwhelming — and no extended analysis should really be necessary. Their scoring talents are duplicative and cancel each other out and the interior defense with both in the game is pure swiss cheese. Together they nullify all of Marbury’s talents by turning a “penetrate-and-disher” into a “down-low-dumper” to satisfy both men. But forget all that, here is “the 1st quarter report” on the Eddy-Zach starting combo.

Eddy-Zach Starting – The 1st Quarter Report:
 
A.           Down 5 or more Points after the First Quarter:
·        The Knicks have ended the first quarter down by 5 or more points 16 times!
·        The Knicks had a double-digit deficits in 6 of those first quarters.
·        They have also been outscored by 5+ points another 11 times in the 3rd quarter.

 


B.           Up 5 points after the First Quarter

·        The Eddy/Zach starting pair has never resulted in a 5+ point lead.
·        The Knicks only two significant 1st quarter leads came on days where Eddy and Zach never shared the floor in the quarter.
·        Only three times did the Zach- Eddy starting pair yield anything more than a one-point first quarter lead

 


C.            Other Notes why Eddy and Zach should never play another minute together:

 
·        What about 3rd quarters with Eddy/Zach? More bad news: In 10 more games the Knicks lost the 3rd quarter by 5 or more points and only twice did a 3rd quarter end in a +5 (+6 against Cavs1 & Nets2). In nearly 50 first and third quarters where Zach and Eddy started together only TWO (4%) can be considered clearly positive!

·        When Eddy and Zach DO NOT play the first quarter together: 3 games yielded positive first quarters (+8 @ Nets; +5@Magic; +3@Kings); 2 more games yield respectable showings against top tier clubs (-3@Spurs; -5@Suns); and 2 bad games (-5 vs. Heat and -8@Bulls). Despite 1 overall win, most of these games were competitive despite the fact that, oddly enough, 6 of those 7 games came on the road. Also, an alternate starting line-up has never been given an opportunity to achieve any continuity across multiple games.
 
·        6 of the Knicks 8 wins were fueled by key contributions of back-up players who participated in 2nd quarter spurts (T-Wolves; Bulls; Nets-2; Cavs) or 4th quarter comebacks (Denver & Milwaukee).  In these 6 victories the Knicks outscored their opponent by an average of 12.6 points in that QUARTER!  
 
 
D.    FOR THE STATHEADS
1st Quarter Outcomes
Knicks Clearly Win Quarter (5+) = 2 Games
·        @Nets +8 and @Orlando +5
·        Eddy-Zach did not never play the first quarter together in either game.
·        Eddy missed Nets game; and Zach came off bench as Curry substitute in Magic game

 

Competitive (within 4 points) = 12 games

·        Knicks Gain Slight Edge: 3 Games (+4 against Utah & Seattle; +3 at Sac w/o Zach)
·        Very Close: 7 Games within 2 points either way (E & Z start in all of these games)
·        Knicks lose slight edge: 2 Games (-4 @Chi and -3 at San Antonio w/o Zach )
 

 

Knicks Clearly Lose Quarter/Disaster(- 5 or more) = 18 Games

·        Bad: 6 Games Knicks lose by 5 or 6 points (w/o Zach against Heat & @ Suns)
·        Worse: 6 Games Knicks lose by 7 – 9 points (E & Z start 5 with Curry sitting out Chi game)
·        Disaster: 6 Games Knicks lose by more than 10 (E & Z start all these games)

 

 

Vegas Odds of Eddy/Zach pairing based on first 25 combo starts

0% = Significant 1st Quarter lead
40% = Remain Competitive (10 of 25)
60% = Clearly lose quarter or Game Over
 

STOP THE MADNESS!:  No team can be psychologically saddled with digging themselves out of a deficit every single night. Please get this info to Isiah or one of his trusted assistants! At this point keeping Eddy and Zach on the floor together amounts to intentionally tanking games on par with Larry Brown closing out 4th quarters with the legendary Jackie Butler. This must be stopped! If the Knicks are to get ridiculed, mocked, and be nation’s punchline, then the least we could do is play our best players and combinations and earn that mockery. No more Eddy-Zach combo, start Lee, sit Q, let Renaldo out of jail, and let the Knicks only true point guard (Marbury) run the point. Stop the madness!!!

 

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Side Note on Zach:

In a directly related note. The New York Times’ Howard Beck (New York’s best Knick beat writer) begins his article: Randolph Returns; Losing Never Left with this:

"The question [to Isiah] was a little convoluted and complex, but the premise was clear enough: how could the Knicks play so well against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, add a highly productive Zach Randolph on Saturday and yet be soundly beaten by a lesser Houston Rockets team?"

Isiah either wasn’t prepared to answer the question or wasn’t prepared to alienate his players with a truthful response, but we will. The symbolic answer comes at 3:50 in the third quarter of last night’s game. At that time Zach did one of his patented spin moves as three Houston defenders converged on him. Many of the other open but just KNEW that the ball would not be passed. At the very top of the screen you can see a never more open and, perhaps, never more naive Stephon Marbury waving his hands up and down at the 3-point line hoping to catch the corner of Zach’s determined eye. The pass out to Marbury had a perfectly clear lane. Zach with head down as usual, either didn’t see him or just plain ignored him. Before the screen shifted you could see Marbury’s arms come down as his shoulders visibly shrugged in disappointment as the play unfolded. Zach went on to miss the shot, and grab one of his own season high 22 rebounds, then get fouled, and get two of his 18 points at the line. Zach believes he has done a good job. After all, the stat sheet proves it, doesn’t it? However, four teamates felt alienation. When Zach learns to pass that ball – EVEN if it results in a miss — then the Knicks might start winning consistently. Everybody at work has a colleague like Zach who individually excels, but seems to bring the overall work environment down. Zach is that guy.

Most Knick fans deciding between keeping Curry or Zach want to keep Zach because of his considerable rebounding prowess that bests the one-trick-pony that is Curry. I prefer Curry next to a solid dirty work defender and Lee off the bench. Neither Zach or Curry pass out of the double-team very well, but there are two distinctions. One, Curry is already down on the low block when he takes on multiple defenders and Zach is out on the perimeter — hence Curry’s higher shooting percentage. But the main difference is that, Curry — after being routinely double-teamed for the first time last year — hasn’t LEARNED how to effectively pass out of it. On the other hand Zach doesn’t WANT to pass out of it. Besides a few games when he tried to play team ball, Zach is straight-up selfish about his stats. He wants that "20-10" tag, but the Knicks need a "10-10-4 + defense" from that position. Perhaps if I watched a few Portland games the last few years, it would not have taken this long to draw this conclusion that so many others already talked about. My bad. Curry will not stop growth and development of other players, but Zach seems to do that as the ball always seems to stop on the perimeter when it touches his hands. I only see Zach as valuable on a contending team that defines his role upon arrival (see Adrian Dantley to Pistons or Antoine Walker to Heat). …but maybe I’m wrong… or maybe we have all played enough full court pick-up games to know EXACTY what Marbury felt when he shrugged his shoulders and what enough of those shrugs can do to a team…

 

 

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